It is 1pm where some leading trends can be trusted and closer fights get more interesting. We track Election Commission India results which are the best source to judge the trends.
1. Chhattisgarh : EXIT POLLS - CLOSE FIGHT LEAD RESULT - CONGRESS
Leading results have been shown for 82 seats out of 90 seats with CONGRESS leading on 58 seats. This should be a comfortable win for CONGRESS totally opposite compared to exit poll which showed close fight.
2. Telangana : EXIT POLLS - 60% CHANCES TRS LEAD RESULT - TRS
Leading results have been shown for 119 seats out of 119 seats with TRS leading on 88 seats. This should be a comfortable win for TRS somewhat shown in exit poll favouring TRS.
3. Rajasthan : EXIT POLLS - 63% CHANCES CONGRESS LEAD RESULT - CONGRESS LOW MARGIN
Leading results have been shown for 197 seats out of 200 seats with CONGRESS leading on 95 seats. This is a close fight since 14 seats Independents are leading which has reduced number of seats of Congress & BJP. Exit Polls showed comfortable win to CONGRESS which dint factor in Independent.
4. Madhya Pradesh : EXIT POLL - CLOSE FIGHT LEAD RESULTS - CLOSE FIGHT
Leading results have been shown for 230 seats out of 230 seats with CONGRESS leading on 110 seats. This is a close fight since 12 seats OTHERS are leading which has reduced number of seats of Congress & BJP. Exit Polls showed close fight and it was right in that factor.
TARGET INVESTING VIEW :
OUR BASE CASE IS BJP WILL LOOSE MADHYA PRADESH & RAJASTHAN AS ALLIANCES WILL FORMED WITH CONGRESS. THIS WILL BE NEGATIVE FOR NIFTY BUT IT WILL BE EXPECTED THAT STIMULUS WILL BE GIVEN TO WIN 2019.
RISK IS WHERE BJP WINS BOTH AS THIS BOOST UP NIFTY AND GIVE FLIP TO EXPECTATIONS.
ANOTHER IMPORTANT EVENT IS WHAT THE GOVERNMENT DOES ON RBI GOVERNOR APPOINTMENT.