Though at current juncture it is very hard to predict the actual economic impact of the outbreak in China and other countries. As per current data available from Chinese authority, number of deaths and new cases reported daily has reduced substantially.
For a better understanding of economic activity status we have compiled road, port and air traffic data from various crucial cities in China. These datasets are very high frequency but we will release it on a fortnightly basis so that the volatility of data is not impacted.
ROAD TRANSPORT
We track road congestion levels of 21 cities in China that comprise of major manufacturing hubs of critical and value add products that are important for production units globally. We analyze the data on the basis that latest three days congestion compared to past four days and same day in 2019.
Only one city compared to five cities last week, Wuhan that is epicenter of the virus outbreak but also manufacturing hub for automotive parts and fiber optics are still showing flat movement indicating no sign of improvement.
Dongguan that is hub of high tech manufacturing including large base for mobile phone manufacturing and Quanzhou that is hub for tableware , ceramics and house products , are showing some improvement traffic since last week but it still lower than normal levels.
Eighteen cities compared to Tweleve cities last week such as Guangzhou, Hangzhou and Shenyang that are automotive part manufacturing hub in addition to chemicals, steel and agricultural products have returned to almost normal congestion levels of 2019 and some cities have gone above
CONTAINER PORT TRAFFIC
We track port total arrivals and departures of Zhoushan (third largest container port world) and Shanghai’s Yangshan the biggest deep-water container port in China.
At Zhoushan since January 29th to March 11th the total traffic per day has risen from 464 to 2113 showing a growth of 355% and growth of 44.53% growth compared to previous week.
At Yangshan since January 29th to March 11th the total traffic per day has risen from 802 to 3558 showing a growth of 348% and growth of 37.18% growth compared to previous week.
AIRPORT TRAFFIC
We track
Since January 28th to February 25th total departures have fallen from 8000 flights daily to 1900 daily a de-growth of 76% but week ending on 11th March Top 5 airports had total departures of 1839 that is lower compared 2052 previous week. There are many restrictions imposed on International traffic but there is improvement in domestic traffic.
OUR VIEW:
As compared to last week data there is acceleration of activity in various cities and ports in the country. During the same period the number of new cases and deaths have dropped drastically where officials also mentioned that the virus has peaked in the country.
Top 23 Automakers have returned to 90% of production levels and money supply growth has come at 4.8% compared to 0% previously reported. These are significant indicators of the swift recovery we have mentioned in our previous notes. This normalcy will be helpful to recover lost growth in June quarter and full acceleration in September quarter.
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